سید علی اکبر احمدی - Prof. Faculty of Management , Payam Noor University West Unit, Tehran, Iran
داوود کریم زادگان - Assistant Prof. Faculty of Computer Engineering , Payam Noor University, Tehran, Iran
تورج خیراتی کازرونی - MSc. Student in Information Technology Management, Faculty of Manegent Payam Noor University of Tehran, Iran

Student withdrawal in higher education is one the important challenges in universities. This paper considers the admission of fee paid students as a business and their withdrawals as customer churn. The aim is to investigate the attrition and predicted risk of attrition to adapt interventionist polices deterrent. This study is a descriptive an applicable technique that uses quantitative and qualitative data. It uses Crisp technology of data mining. The data are derived from educational system of University of Tehran including ۲۱۴۲۰ fee paid students accepted at ۲۰۱۰ to ۲۰۱۴. The main goal is to analyze the behavior that is at risk of attrition and withdrawal. After data analyze and construction of predictive modeling, the probability table of attrition and regression model will be presented. The final results show that the first and second semester (especially the age range ۲۴-۳۱) of M.Sc students are the most likely risk of withdrawal of happening. 

customer churn, customer relation management, educational data mining, withdrawal