فاطمه ثقفی - Assistant Prof., Interdisciplinary Department of Technology, Faculty of New Sciences and Technologies, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
علیرضا علی احمدی - Prof., Faculty of Industries, Iran University of Science and Technology, Tehran, Iran
سید سپهر قاضی نوری - Associate Prof., Economic and Management Dept., Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran
منصوره حورعلی - Ph.D. Candidate, Industry Engineering, Payam-E Noor University, Tehran, Iran

Many documents in the field of e-government services in Iran have been developed and recently approved, but these documents were ignored future trends and scenarios. The aim of research is developing futures scenario of e-government services by ۱۴۰۴. In this study, using the global network business and success factors, the important uncertainties are identified by expert’s opinions. Population is of ۵۰ Iranian e-government experts and futurists. The current research is the compound research. Using questionnaires and analysis of documents and expert panel, the required data are gathered. Validity of the questionnaire assessed using the panel of experts and the Cronbach's alpha was used for validation. With determination of three uncertainty composed of trust, interoperability and world trade market entry according to the expert's views as the main scenario, eight scenarios were extracted. Then, with the help of experts, four scenario with higher degree of feasibility were selected which allows policymakers to deal with the best possible of future situation.

e-government scenario method, Futures Studies, uncertainty