Golestan National Park Burn Probability Modeling ۲۰۰۰-۲۰۲۰

Spatially explicit information on the burn probability is necessary for all strategic fire and fuel management planning activities, including conducting wildfire risk assessments, optimizing fuel treatments, and prevention planning. In this study, we undertook a wildfire risk assessment across the Golestan National Park, northeastern Iran where we used the FlamMap MTT model to determine burn probability. We calibrated the model inputs to provide simulated fire outputs that most closely match fire history information over the past two decades (۲۰۰۰-۲۰۲۰). The results showed that the burn probability of the landscape was highly heterogeneous, such that southern and eastern parts of the landscape burned with high probability (>۰.۰۱), while western areas had low burn probabilities (<۰.۰۰۱). The areas with high burn probabilities should be considered as high-priority areas for future fire management. Fuel treatment planning should be taken in these areas for adaptation to climate change.