Improving SIR Model to Predict the First Peak of Covid-۱۹

Based on reports of W.H.O organization, contagious infectious diseases are in the list of top ۱۰ threads to human health. About two years ago, a new epidemic spread around the world named novel coronavirus or Covid-۱۹. Modeling and controlling the spreading of epidemics is essential, especially in the first stage of the contagion. In this paper, we show the shortcoming of existing models such as SIR in predicting the spreading of Covid-۱۹, and we propose a model which predicts the first peak of Covid-۱۹ with high accuracy. Since the first stages of epidemic spreading are important from a theoretical and practical point of view, we start the research by predicting the first peek of this epidemic. In some cases, our model predicts the infected case withR۲> ۹۰%. This model is an excellent help for governments, organizations, and institutions who decide and plan to control the epidemic.