The Effect of Manager Forecast of Future Sales on Company Risk During Sales Decline Using the Fama-French Five-Factor Model
محل انتشار: مجله ایرانی مطالعات مدیریت، دوره: 14، شماره: 3
سال انتشار: 1400
نوع سند: مقاله ژورنالی
زبان: انگلیسی
مشاهده: 139
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شناسه ملی سند علمی:
JR_JIJMS-14-3_003
تاریخ نمایه سازی: 23 شهریور 1401
چکیده مقاله:
A sales decline period disrupts the time series of earnings and, consequently, reduces their predictability. Such a situation can lead to inappropriate decisions by investors. Therefore, managers need to respond appropriately to negative news resulting from sales decline. Manager response is related to forecasting future sales situations, which could affect risk to the firm. Accordingly, the purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of managers' forecasts of future sales on the risk of companies that have experienced sales decline. In this study, the ratio of the changes in operating profit margin was used to compare companies with optimistic and pessimistic managers. To investigate the research hypotheses, the Fama-French five-factor model was used to depict a period of ۱۱ years, from ۲۰۰۷ to ۲۰۱۷, for the companies that are accepted in the Tehran Stock Exchange. It should be noted that the market beta of the Fama-French five-factor model is distinguished by upside potential and downside risk factors, making it possible to study them individually. The findings imply that in companies with optimistic managers, the upside potential is more than the downside risk, but in companies with pessimistic managers, there is no significant difference between the upside potential and the downside risk.
کلیدواژه ها:
نویسندگان
زهرا مقدم
PhD Student, Department of Accounting, Faculty of Economics and Management, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran
غلامرضا منصورفر
Associate Professor, Department of Accounting, Faculty of Economics and Management, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran
حمزه دیدار
Associate Professor, Department of Accounting, Faculty of Economics and Management, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran
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