China’s Sustainable Tourism and Output Growth: A Policy Modelling Study
محل انتشار: مطالعات بین المللی اقتصاد، دوره: 51، شماره: 2
سال انتشار: 1400
نوع سند: مقاله ژورنالی
زبان: انگلیسی
مشاهده: 103
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شناسه ملی سند علمی:
JR_IESUI-51-2_001
تاریخ نمایه سازی: 24 مهر 1401
چکیده مقاله:
China has become the world’s high-growth and second largest economy since its socialist- orientation opening-up reforms in the early ۱۹۸۰s. Due also to its geographical, cultural and historical attractions, the country has become the world’s fourth largest tourism destination and tenth largest tourism earner in ۲۰۱۸ according to the World Tourist Organization. The important role played by tourism in the Chinese economy has been officially recognized by China’s National Development and Reform Commission as a strategic pillar industry development priority. In spite of these, rigorous policy-related studies on China’s tourism have been limited. The paper is a serious econometric study to investigate the determination of China’s tourism and its contribution to the country during the period ۱۹۹۶-۲۰۱۸ for credible data-based policy analysis. Significantly, the study is carried out appropriately from an economic integration (globalization) growth framework, which is also the expenditure (as opposed to production or income) perspective of the United Nations System of National Accounts ۱۹۹۸/۲۰۰۳. Specifically, a multi-simultaneous equation model of endogenous growth and China’s tourism determination is developed. The model innovatively incorporates gravity theory and classical consumer demand contributors, Ironmonger-Lancaster new commodity attributes and Johansen policy impact add- and sub-factors (i.e., reforms and crises) explicitly in its economic integration structure. The model is then estimated by system methods with official economic and tourism ۱۹۹۶-۲۰۱۸ data from the World Tourism Organization and international databases. The research will contribute to advances in the literature and the findings provide useful insights and appropriate and much needed evidence-based inputs on the determination and contributors of tourism to China’s growth. Recommendations will be provided to key stake-holders such as tourism policy-makers, academic researchers, business analysts and tourism operators for national strategic policy analysis and practical implementation.JEL Classification: C۵۴, F۱۵, F۶۲, Z۳۲, Z۳۸
کلیدواژه ها:
Tourism ، China’s Growth ، Economic Integration Theory ، Econometric Modelling ، Strategic Tourism Policy ، Economic and Trade Policy
نویسندگان
Tran Van Hoa
Professor, Victoria University, Australia
Jo Vu
Victoria University Business School, Australia
Pham Quang Thao
Vietnam Union of Science and Technology Associations, Vietnam
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