COVID-۱۹ Critical Status Risk Prediction Model Based on Comorbidities and Blood Group in Hospitalized Patients, Birjand, Iran, March ۲۰۲۰-March ۲۰۲۱

Introduction: Since the first dramatic outbreak of Coronavirus disease ۲۰۱۹ (COVID-۱۹), caused by SARS-CoV-۲, many scientists from all over the world, have identified and suggested conflicting results regarding the association between various modifiable and non-modifiable risk factors and SARS-CoV-۲ prognosis. In this study, we aimed to suggest a severe COVID-۱۹ prediction model based on data of COVID-۱۹ hospitalized patients. The severe COVID-۱۹ risk model that we suggested, might help to identify severe patients at an early stage and to take the best therapeutic schedule for them. Methods and Materials: We conducted an analytical cross-sectional study in Valiasr hospital, Birjand; ۶۹۶ hospitalized patients were enrolled in this study, between March ۲۰۲۰ and March ۲۰۲۱. This study was approved by the ethics committee of Birjand University of Medical Sciences (ethics number: IR.BUMS.REC.۱۴۰۰.۳۱۵). We collected the information about patients’ comorbidities and demographic data, such as age, sex and also data pertaining to the blood groups of patients from Health Information System (HIS) of Valiasr hospital. Then we conducted a multivariate logistic regression analysis to construct the early predictors for severe COVID-۱۹ model. Significance level was considered p <۰.۰۵. Results: The participants of this study had a mean age of ۵۴.۴۵ ±۱۸.۳۵ years; ۵۶.۳% (n=۳۹۲) of the patients were male and ۴۳.۷% (n=۳۰۴) were female, of which ۸۷.۶% were discharged, ۳.۳% admitted into ICU and ۹.۱% died. Of all the participants, ۳۳۳ had at least one comorbidity and the most common comorbidity was diabetes mellitus ۲۵.۳% (n=۱۷۶), followed by cardiovascular diseases ۱۲.۴% (n=۸۶). Considering the ABO blood type, A blood group (۳۱.۵%), was the most common, followed by O (۲۹.۹%), which was similar to the prevalence of ABO blood types in our regional population. Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified elderly age, (OR = ۱.۰۵۳, ۹۵%CI ۱.۰۳۵–۱.۰۷۱; p <۰.۰۰۱), being Rh positive (OR = ۰.۲۱۰, ۹۵%CI ۰.۰۸۵–۰.۵۱۹; p ۰.۰۰۱), having kidney diseases (OR = ۱.۷۹۶, ۹۵%CI ۱.۰۶۲–۳.۰۳۶; p ۰.۰۲۹) and having pulmonary diseases (OR = ۲.۰۷۵, ۹۵%CI ۱.۱۰۵–۳.۸۹۸; p ۰.۰۲۳) as being significantly associated with poor prognosis of COVID-۱۹. Conclusion: Our results indicated that there was an increased risk of poor prognosis of COVID-۱۹ associated with elderly age groups, Rh+ and comorbidities such as kidney diseases and pulmonary diseases.