Another Evidence of an Increasing Trend in the Incidence of Breast Cancer in Developing Countries Over the Recent Years

Background: We examined and estimated the trend of breast cancer incidence in Kerman, the largest province in Iran. Method: Having compiling the data of new cases from three sources (cancer registry, pathology, radiotherapy) in this longitudinal study, the number of untouched cases was estimated using log-linear model. We estimated the annual age-standardized rate (ASR) per ۱۰۰,۰۰۰ women in ۲۰۰۱-۲۰۱۵. We utilized joint point regression method to estimate the trend of breast cancer incidence during the examined years. Results: The ASR of breast cancer increased from ۲۵ in ۲۰۰۱-۲۰۰۵ to ۳۷ in ۲۰۱۱- ۲۰۱۵, showing that the annual average percentage increased by ۵.۹% (۹۵% Confidence Interval: ۳.۵, ۸.۴, p <۰.۰۰۱). Moreover, during this period, the completeness of the cancer registry increased from ۱۶% in the first five years to ۷۰% in the last five years. Conclusion: Our findings revealed that the coverage of the cancer registry increased significantly. It seems that part of the increasing trend of the reported cancer incidence was attributed to the enhancement of the cancer registry scheme, but our findings suggested that the real incidence of breast cancer had a growing trend.