Input-Output Analysis for Price Targeting Effects of Energy Carriers on The Agricultural Production of Iran

In this research, the effect of changes in energy prices on output of different sectors by using of regional input output of Hormozgan province is investigated. The AFLQ method is used for regionalization of national I_O table. Three scenarios for the increase in energy prices have been considered. The results showed that except of water, electricity and gas/ sector, the output of other sectors has decreased. In the first scenario, the increase in the output of Water, Electricity and Gas/ sector was equal to ۳۸۵۷۴.۵۲ million Rials whereas the output of transportation sector had the largest decrease in production. Industry and agriculture sectors are the other sectors that have the largest decrease in output after transportation.Total decrease of regional output in first scenario was ۱۸۹۶۶۳۳.۱۷ million Rials. As a result of the research, ۲۰% increase in the price of energy carriers, about ۰.۲۸% of the total production of the province has decreased. In the second and third scenario total decrement of regional output was ۵۱۲۹۷۳.۸۰ and ۳۰۴۸۹۲۷.۸۶ million Rials, respectively. Decrement of agriculture output in these two scenarios was ۳۶۲۰۹۹.۱۵ and ۵۱۲۹۷۳.۸۰ million Rials. Considering the importance of the agricultural sector in food production, supporting the production of this sector is necessary using appropriate policies such as guaranteed purchase or decrease of tax rate and technology subsidies in different sectors. These policies can provide the necessary incentives to adjust towards more efficient energy technologies, in order to ultimately reduce the negative effects of the increase in the price of energy.