Storm Surges and Extreme Wind Waves in the Caspian Sea in the Present and Future Climate
محل انتشار: ژورنال مهندسی عمران، دوره: 8، شماره: 11
سال انتشار: 1401
نوع سند: مقاله ژورنالی
زبان: انگلیسی
مشاهده: 24
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شناسه ملی سند علمی:
JR_CEJ-8-11_001
تاریخ نمایه سازی: 2 اردیبهشت 1403
چکیده مقاله:
The Caspian Sea is of particular interest. Against the background of long-term sea level changes, low-lying coastal areas in the northern part are subject to constant flooding as a result of storm surges. The elongation of the sea in the meridional direction allows the development of strong waves in the middle and southern parts. A comprehensive understanding of the characteristics of storm surges and storm waves is especially important in the context of ongoing climate change. This study is devoted to the analysis of storm surges for the time period from ۱۹۷۹ up to ۲۰۱۷ and wind waves from ۱۹۷۹ to ۲۰۲۰ in the Caspian Sea region. The circulation model ADCIRC and the wave model WAVEWATCH III with wind and pressure forcing from the NCEP/CFSR reanalysis were used. The modeling is performed on different unstructured grids with spacings of ۵۰۰–۹۰۰ m in the coastal zone. Mean and extreme values of surges, wave parameters and storm activity are provided in the research. The maximum significant wave height for the whole period was ۸.۲ m. The average long-term SWH did not exceed ۱.۱ m. No significant trends in the storm activity were found. The maximum surge height was ۲.۷ m. The analysis of the interannual variability of the surges' occurrence showed that ۷–۱۰ surges with a height of more than ۱ meter were detected every year. The total duration of these surges was ۲۰–۳۰ days per year. Assessment of the risks of coastal flooding was carried out by calculating the extreme values of the sea for different return periods: ۵, ۱۰, ۲۵, ۵۰, and ۱۰۰ years. The extreme sea level values in the northern part of the Caspian Sea for the ۱۰۰-year return period are close to ۳ m, and the areas with big surges are located along the eastern and western coasts. A forecast is made for the recurrence of storm wind waves in the ۲۱st century based on climatic scenarios in CMIP۵. A statistically significant increase in the recurrence of storm waves is to be expected in the near future, but that increase is not severe. Doi: ۱۰.۲۸۹۹۱/CEJ-۲۰۲۲-۰۸-۱۱-۰۱ Full Text: PDF
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